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Forum :: Website Discussion

RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay


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admin

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PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 1:15 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

I've been keeping track off and on over the years, but for 2007, I've been on it. This post inspired me to graph 'averages' for TB1000S, TB1000A, TB500 and TB2000 instruments on eBay. I think this is a good way to see what these instruments are going for, and if the trend is climbing, etc.

http://www.travisbeanguit.....useaction/market.main.htm

I want to keep tracking, and then show year graphs along with the 12 month averages.

Thanks!
admin

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admin

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PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 1:17 AM    Post subject: Market Graphs link

So you want to know what to expect to pay for a Bean.. or you want to know what you can sell it for. I created market graphs for 'averages' on eBay. I think this is a good gauge to see what the market is doing. Remember, these are averages.. and especially when there are not a lot of instruments being sold/bought every month. This is just to get a 'base line'. Beans can sell much higher or lower depending on condition, history, etc.

http://www.travisbeanguit.....useaction/market.main.htm

Thanks!
admin

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old_bohemian

PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 8:02 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

The "averages" that are charted tell very little as the sample is so small that in some cases they cannot be deemed to be an average at all. Take for example the Artist graph. Only one Artist was sold in each month March to June, thus those months show an "average of one," which is not an average at all. Each sale is an isolated incident with many variables that contribute to the price. A case in point, if no other Artists sell in June (which is the norm) then the naive reader of the graph must conclude that the Artist market collapsed from $3500 to $2700 without knowing that the likely prime factor for the low June $2700 price was very poor advertising that drove potential buyers away (see my post on "TB1000A #1246 on eBay" thread).

Likewise, a naiver viewer of the graph must conclude at present that the Standard model's value has soared, but this is only due to an off the charts price paid ($4727) for the extra special Yellow Bean with excellent advertising bought by an active collector/player and friend of this site.

The chart, to be barely more useful, should state how many sales are included in the average, but I still can't see how an averages chart can be useful with such a small sample. I'm no statistician, but I suspect their is a complex calculation to show a value trendline of small samples that discounts aberrant sales prices on both ends of the spectrum.

All that really can be said is that the average value placed on Travis Bean guitars has been rising for 8 months and it is more likely a trend than a bubble as this is how the vintage guitar market works. I suspect collector/investors have an interest in supporting higher prices for their investments and will step in to keep prices up for verified quality Beans.

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admin

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PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 8:26 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

I understand your point, but we need to start somewhere. Taking averages from a single year is not a great gauge, but I'm looking towards the future. When we have yearly data, etc.

Also..'average of one'.. is an average. If that is what was was sold.. then that's what is sold. I'll see what I can do about including the quantities as cross graph line in the chart as well. These graphs are created programatically.

I believe it's still useful for potential buyers and sellers.. since I get asked (almost daily) what Beans are worth.

admin

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old_bohemian

PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 8:33 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

BoulderBean,

TB1000S #1636 sold for $4707 on Jan. 22, 2007, although it was another special Standard being painted pearl white, autographed by Travis Bean and once his own guitar. See second page of this discussion board, half-way down "TB1000S #1636 on EBay" to reference Ebay's description.

These unique collector's item sales are abnormal and cannot be considered when trying to figure the current fair value standard Beans.

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old_bohemian

PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 11:20 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Averages, to have any meaningful usefulness, need to have large samples. In baseball, a batting average taken from 1, 2. 3 ....... 25 at bats has little useful meaning. Granted we have only a small set of samples to work with in Travis Bean market analysis and we need to start somewhere to try to understand what is happening. You're on the right track in trying to give an objective answer to the general question "What are Beans worth?" but perhaps showing averages is not the way to go. Maybe showing a "mean" sales table would be better and leave the analysis of the numbers up to the viewer.

The table headings could be as follows for each model:

Date sold - Serial # - Sales Price - Sold at Auction or Buy it Now - Ebay address - Remarks

You can present the tables in two different formats: one that sorts the date in descending order, another that sorts the Sales Price in descending order; the former will attempt to show sales price trends, while the latter will attempt to show the sales price range that will readily show aberrant high and low prices that can possibly be explained in the remarks section. The latter table will readily show where prices cluster, that area being where a good estimate of value can be had which eliminates outlier sales prices (those at the extremes of the table) from skewing an estimate.

Below are examples of what the tables would show using current data from Nov. '06 to present.


Artist model / Table 1 (sorted by sales date)

6/07 - serial # 1246 .........$2710 ....(Auction) ......... 18 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
5/07 - serial # 1324 .........$3500 ....(Buy it now) ...... - bids ........[Ebay reference address]
4/07 - serial # 981 ...........$3251 ....(Auction) ......... 33 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
3/07 - serial # 950 ...........$3850 ....(Auction) ......... 23 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
3/07 - serial # 1213 .........$3295 ....(Buy it now) ...... - bids ........[Ebay reference address]
2/07 - serial # 1??? .........$2850 ....(Buy it now) ...... - bids ........[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 416 ...........$3139 ....(Auction) ......... 12 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
12/06 - serial # 831 ...........$2500 ....(Auction) ......... 17 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
12/06 - serial # 704 ...........$2940.....(Buy it now) ...... - bids .........[Ebay reference address]
12/06 - serial # 646 ...........$3450 ....(Auction) ......... 11 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
11/06 - serial # 1230 .........$3500 ....(Buy it now) ....... - bids ........[Ebay reference address]


Artist model / Table 2 (sorted by sales price)

3/07 - serial # 950 ............$3850 ....(Auction) ......... 23 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
5/07 - serial # 1324 ..........$3500 ....(Buy it now) ...... - bids ........[Ebay reference address]
11/06 - serial # 1230 .........$3500 ....(Buy it now) ...... - bids ........[Ebay reference address]
12/06 - serial # 646 ...........$3450 ....(Auction) ......... 11 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
3/07 - serial # 1213 .........$3295 ....(Buy it now) ...... - bids ........[Ebay reference address]
4/07 - serial # 981 ...........$3251 ....(Auction) ......... 33 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 416 ...........$3139 ....(Auction) ......... 12 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
12/06 - serial # 704 ...........$2940.....(Buy it now) ...... - bids .........[Ebay reference address]
2/07 - serial # 1??? ..........$2850 ....(Buy it now) ...... - bids ........[Ebay reference address]
6/07 - serial # 1246 ..........$2710 ....(Auction) ......... 18 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
12/06 - serial # 831 ...........$2500 ....(Auction) ......... 17 bids .......[Ebay reference address]



Standard model / Table 1 (sorted by sales date)

6/07 - serial # 1462 .......... $4727....(Auction) .... 24 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
6/07 - serial # 1068 ...........$2800....(Auction) ...... 7 bids ......[Ebay reference address]
5/07 - serial # 515 .............$2674....(Auction) .... 10 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
5/07 - serial # 1348 ...........$3200....(Auction) .... 23 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
4/07 - serial # 813 .............$3550....(Auction) .... 21 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
3/07 - serial # 1705 ...........$2325....(Auction) ...... 3 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
2/07 - serial # 1?? ............. $3745....(Auction) .... 16 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
2/07 - serial # 749 ............ .$1536....(Auction) ..... ? bids ........[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 394 ..............$1586....(Auction) .... 23 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 1087 ............$2950....(Auction) .... 12 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 1636 ........... $4707....(Auction) .... 31 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 1348 ............$1975....(Auction) ...... 4 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
11/06 - serial # 1315...........$2499.....(Buy it now) . - bids .........[Ebay reference address]


Standard model / Table 2 (sorted by sales price)

6/07 - serial # 1462 .......... $4727.....(Auction) ..... 24 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 1636 .......... $4707.....(Auction) ..... 31 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
2/07 - serial # 1?? ............. $3745.....(Auction) .....16 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
4/07 - serial # 813 ............. $3550.....(Auction) ..... 21 bids ......[Ebay reference address]
5/07 - serial # 1348 ............$3200.....(Auction) ......23 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 1087 ............$2950.....(Auction) ......12 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
6/07 - serial # 1068 ............$2800.....(Auction) ........7 bids ......[Ebay reference address]
5/07 - serial # 515 ..............$2674.....(Auction) .......10 bids ......[Ebay reference address]
11/06 - serial # 1315.......... $2499.....(Buy it now) .... - bids .......[Ebay reference address]
3/07 - serial # 1705 ............$2325.....(Auction) ....... 3 bids ......[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 1348 ............$1975.....(Auction) ....... 4 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
1/07 - serial # 394 ..............$1586.....(Auction) ...... 23 bids .......[Ebay reference address]
2/07 - serial # 749 .............$1536......(Auction) ....... ? bids .......[Ebay reference address]

I believe the data in table form would give the viewer more information to make a better judgment of value using their own methods.






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admin

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PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 1:05 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

I definitely understand the direction you're trying to get at, but I do have some issues here as well. First of all, I think being able to gather quick information is quite useful.. as well as detailed information. Looking at the tables you set up, it's difficult to determine quickly what a Bean is worth.. and I would just create an average of the TB1000S table to come up with that if I was thinking of selling, etc.

I'm not sure adding serial numbers with auction prices is good idea, since it could impact future sales, etc. I want to keep it somewhat abstract. For example, why #xyz sold for only $2000 (when it was due to poor description vs the actual instrument condition).

I'm also concernded about scalability. Looking at auctions from Nov/06 to present, the table looks nice, but I want something that will scale nicely over the next several years... and again give quick information about trends and general 'value'.

Maybe a combination of the two might be the way to go. Offer the graph/average, but also offer the break down of instruments per/month (your tables), but excluding serials and ebay reference addresses. Ebay reference adderesses aren't permanent, and would be useless (ie: past Nov for example).

I think the averages will come together once we get a good base of auctions, and by providing a little more information on how the averages were calculated will also help.

Let me work on this a bit... I think we're onto something quite cool and informative. I really appreciate your input!!!!

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BoulderBean

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PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 1:14 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Good stuff guys. I'm glad that someone is keeping this info. Just for kicks, we should keep track of the record max paid for each model - regardless of the "uniqueness", etc. So the Garcia #715 1000A would presumably be the record sales price for a 1000A. The $4,726 paid for the cream colored 1000S would be the record for 1000S....etc.

Some sort of average is useful for sales and purchase. However the samples are very small and the differences between instruments has a huge impact.

I think this effort will be a terrific addition to the web site that folks will enjoy and use.

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admin

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PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 1:21 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Hello BoulderBean

Thanks for the encouragement! I like your idea as well. I think that should be a seperate data set, excluded from the main data (since we want to monitor eBay.. and current average trends). I think a 'records' table which would include any market venue, etc would be cool to include this.

We'll start with the TB1000A (Garcia's) and the TB1000S (on Ebay) as the start. If anyone else knows of high selling Beans.. can you please contact me via the Contact Form.

I think I'll want to verify the price (so web URL of final price would be great) as well as any information on the sale, owner/history.

Boulder, do you have any information on Garcia's 500s?

Thanks!
admin

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BoulderBean

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PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 1:51 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Great idea on the "records". It should definitely be separate from the E-Bay monitoring. Not all Bean sales are on E-Bay so should we be open to people submitting data from private sales as well?

As far as the Garcia 500s - the Maverick web site still has them listed for sale (with the old rusty and crusty strings). Our friend CP from the #715 thread said that Maverick paid $200,000 for 500 #11 and $400,000 for #12 ("the enemy is listening" guitar - named for the sticker Garcia put on it). It may be impossible to verify those sales prices, but given what they are selling for on the Maverick site these seem possible. I guess $400,000 is the record for a 500 and any Bean. Nuts!

What about the record for a 2000 bass? The 3000 and 4000 records will be tougher to come by.

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admin

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PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 2:03 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

I don't think I would have a problem with 'outside' sales for a additional data.. but those are much harder to verify. We need to ensure that the data is somewhat accurate, and eBay is a good case for that, since it won't be hearsay.

Any ideas on how to verify/control those outside sales?

As for the 3000/4000s, man.. I'd love to NOT include those since they're so rare. Maybe just for the records, but it'll be hard to get that info. Again.. thoughts?

If I can get away from doing 'real' work.. I'll try to get some of this done tonight. At least we're starting with low number of instruments.. so getting it done initially won't be too bad, but planning for the road would be wise.

Thanks again!
admin



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admin

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PostPosted: 06/11/2007 at 11:45 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Okay.. few more steps forward. I've added links to the market page, you can click the link or click the graph to take you to the detailed view. Here I'm using the view that old_bohemian requested for historic data. You can do limited sort (for now) by clicking on the headers.

I think I'm going to offer download to spreadsheet feature for this data as well.

I can see the benefit of showing the serial numbers for the data (to determine trends with lower vs higher serials, etc), but I feel like there needs to be some anonymity. Showing the auction date somewhat defeats this.. but the auctions pages will eventually be inaccessible over time, so you retain your anonymity. I think to keep everyone happy, we should NOT show the serials.

Maybe we can show range block of serials (ie 700 or 700 or something to that affect to get the range without showing the specifics). Any suggestions?

Boulder, I'm working on the 'records' thing next.

Thanks everyone.. it's time to call it a night.. I'm bushed.

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BoulderBean

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PostPosted: 06/12/2007 at 8:39 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Nice work!

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guitarcharlie

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PostPosted: 06/12/2007 at 9:20 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

I think serial numbers are useful. Especially in terms of long term future posterity. Think of the D'angelico serial number list with original owners listed. I would post them and if a particular individual objects they can contact you to delete the number or whatever. Travis Bean owners are a small club..no sense hiding from each other...IMHO of course

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old_bohemian

PostPosted: 06/12/2007 at 1:25 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Very nicely done.

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hogrot

PostPosted: 06/12/2007 at 4:00 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

the standard was bought by vince gallo, the guy loves beans and has enough money to buy the ones he wants. plus, it was a very rare color- imo hard to tell if it was pearl or if it was actually yellow. the yellow could have just been the lighting. I think.

the garcia guitar shouldn't even factor into any kind of averages. as much as we love beans, nostalgia sold that guitar, not Travis Bean tone or workmanship. a hondo or a squier would've fetched the same price (maybe even more) if the auctioners claimed it was one of garcia's touring guitars.

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BoulderBean

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PostPosted: 06/12/2007 at 4:09 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Mr. Gallo is single-handedly increasing the value of these instruments. Thanks for the info hogrot. I think the plan is specifically exclude the "celebrity" Beans (like the Garcia guitars) in any average calculation, but instead to keep those in the "Record Sales Price" department. We could also keep track of the record prices for non-celebrity Beans. what do you think?

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guitarcharlie

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PostPosted: 06/12/2007 at 6:31 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

I'm sure that "yellow" bean was just a white one that yellowed with exposure to UV light. White strats from that era look pretty much the same color if they have been exposed to light. Smoky bars will turn them dark orange to almost brown in spots while the guitars that have been kept in a case will remain more white.

One person can elevate the prices for awhile...but only on the more exotic examples in this case. I would say that the general values for standard and artist and bass koa models are more consistent and rising more slowly. Still undervalued and well worth the $2500-$3500 that they tend to get.

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pbeekman

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PostPosted: 06/12/2007 at 11:16 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Hey, I wasn't expecting this thread to generate so much interest! I still live 'downunder' - and yes there are still some Beans here in Melbourne (although as others have said - wish I hadn't sold off many of mine and my brother's guitars several years back! One was a MINT TB500 in black, another a beautiful white Artist and a couple of Wedges (and the rest!). Ah well! We're kind of into Velenos and Wandres these days, too ... the aluminium madness has simply been distorted into new and weird forms! (And by the way, Wandres sound great, they're not just all about their zany looks). Velenos ... well, email me if interested in their attributes and variations - they sound (and play) stunning. Will always love TBs of course. Prices have been going up in general in the vintage guitar market of course - Gibson Les Pauls from the '50s and '60s are now at house price levels. Guitars have become yet another popular 20th Century art form!

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pbeekman

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PostPosted: 06/12/2007 at 11:20 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Oh, and just for the record - in my humble opinion, the guitar in question was just a faded cream example. Maybe it was pearl white. Maybe. Who cares about 'custom colours' on TBs? The finish on them was just your basic thick acrylic, nothing special, 19'70s guitar paint. They're not nitro finished. They don't have tricky undercoats and laquer. Get over it - if this trend continues, we're all going to get hoodwinked by savvy 'investors' refinning and 'relicing' TBs in so called 'Custom Colour' finishes - the profit is there now, friends!

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Kevin

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PostPosted: 06/13/2007 at 1:08 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Just to correct something, all Beans were finished in straight laquer(not nitro) even the colors. You can actually dye it and the lay clear over it with pearl or whatever. This info is from a Travis Bean interview/article.

Not trying to be an ass, just make sure everyones facts are correct.



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pbeekman

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PostPosted: 06/13/2007 at 4:49 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

Fair enough. My point stands, though - and in my view, the coolest Bean I've come across was Duane Dennison's TB1000 live in concert: refinished in lovely seafoam green, and all the better for it. TBs are all about the engineering, sound and metal necks. In my view, of course.

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hogrot

PostPosted: 06/13/2007 at 8:11 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

i kind of think my bean was refinished. i could check and make sure but it's not that big of a deal to me. i bet there's alot of it going on- people refinishing them and trying to pass them off as original finish. and i kind of think on the whole, people who buy beans are not as savvy as a pre cbs strat collector (stat free analysis- i don't know why I think this, it just makes sense to me). so yeah, i kind of think alot of the people buying super rare finishes, unless they really know their shit, are probably getting ass raped.

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old_bohemian

PostPosted: 06/13/2007 at 9:43 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

When Travis Bean produced a painted guitar did they paint over koa? Or was it another less expensive wood? If a less expensive wood was painted, could you not tell if the paint was original by the weight of the guitar since a a repainted koa would be heavier than an original paint other wood type?

Could the recently sold Artist ($2710) allegedly #1246 ("allegedly" since we never saw picture of the serial number) be on it's way to a paint job and a $2000 profit for the buyer?

The above recent discussion also raises a question about the site's new Market charts/tables section as to whether a basic description of each Bean sold over eBay is a desirable inclusion in the data. Should there be a column in the tables that code whether each particular Bean is koa or painted/color, Imron neck or bare Aluminum, of early or late production, original or modified, graded as to condition (subjective and a cause for contention), unique (as in autographed, or played by a celebrity). Or, should all that be left unsaid on the premises that, as pbeekman believes, "TBs are all about the engineering, sound and metal necks," implying that physical differences between Beans should be a minor factor in valuation within each model category since Beans are desirable mainly because they are Beans regardless of their individual attributes.

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BoulderBean

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PostPosted: 06/13/2007 at 9:51 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

I agree with pbeekman. Beans are all about the sound, engineering, and metal necks. The finish seems almost like an afterthought. But I guess collectors are interested in the finish and the painted ones are more rare. Personally, I love the natural koa finish on my Bean. It's a satin finish which suggests a re-finish since I don't think the factory did many in satin.

Not all of the painted Beans are koa - which I suppose could influence the tone and balance. Another surprising element of the interest in #1462 is the change in body type. I always thought the older, thicker bodies with smaller horns (and lower serial numbers) were more desirable. Those guitars were closer to Travis Bean's original "vision" or concept or whatever.

Whatever the color, Beans should be played. It is all about the sound.

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guitarcharlie

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PostPosted: 06/13/2007 at 11:45 AM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

I like both Bean styles. Wide horns and narrow. There is a transition period where they went with the wide horns and still had the thick body such as the white/yellow example. I have both the narrow and the wide horn versions and love both equally. The wide version does make it easier to play the high neck notes. Remember the guy who cut the lower horn off that early version (ouch!) Any Bean is great as far as I am concerned. As far as wood type goes: One of mine is black over koa (I can tell where paint is worn off) and it is definately the original paint job. It is not hard to tell if you know what to look for.




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hogrot

PostPosted: 06/14/2007 at 1:08 PM    Post subject: RE:TB1000S #1462 (Yellow finish) on eBay link

i agree with you guys for the most part that it's the design and build that makes these such great guitars but like or not the prices are going crazy because collectors are jumping in. with pre-cbs strats or old les pauls or any sough after vintage guitar a refinish can cut the value in half.

the garcia guitar, ones that've been signed or dedicated by the man himself, these guitars i think should be excluded if you want a realistic estimate of where the market is at with them. finishes have a real impact on value so IMO i think it's worthwhile to put that into the research.

something we could totally do with the group we've got here is keep track of finishes for beans in the database so that when a serial number comes up it can be cross referenced to check it it's been refinished. it could save alot of people alot of money and alot of heartache even if it's kind of a yuppie way to approach it.

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admin

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PostPosted: 06/15/2007 at 9:27 AM    Post subject: RE:Market Graphs link

Hello

I added more fields to the detail view of the Market page (clicking on graph or link will take you to the detail view).

New fields added...
1. Serial (I'm only showing partial view of the serial, removing the last two digits of the serial). I do feel like there needs to be a certain level of anonymity here.. and feel real strong about this. I also feel it serves it's purpose determining production year, etc. which is important to determine value or popularity.

2. Imron Neck (Yes, No or N/A)

3. Body (Koa, Magnolia, etc or finish color)

4. [?] Which are notes of interest related to the instrument noted in the auction or by me.

I'm still thinking about the 'records' handling.. so stay tuned for that.

Alright.. back to real work.
Thanks!
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